High Energy early warning! < World Energy Outlook 2019 > look down on this Energy Industry

Source: China Energy Saving Network

Summary: energy demand growth structure continues to divide, of which renewable energy is the fastest growing energy, with an annual growth rate of 7.1%; natural gas demand remains strong (1.7%), faster than oil and coal; Oil demand slowed, growing at an average annual rate of 0.3 percent in the first half of the year before gradually stabilising, while coal demand remained almost flat, falling to its lowest level in the primary energy mix since the Industrial Revolution.

British Petroleum Corporation (BP), one of the international energy giants, recently released World Energy Outlook 2019.

The annual outlook report, which has a significant weight in global energy sector investment research, reveals any important information, especially those that are directly related to China.

First, sustained growth in the global economy will drive up energy demand but continue to divide the structure

Second, according to BP estimates: driven by the growing prosperity of fast-growing developing economies, global GDP will more than double by 2040, with economic growth driving up global energy demand.

In the gradual transition (ET) scenario, global energy demand grew by about 1/3 by 2040, driven mainly by India, China and other Asian countries, accounting for 2/3 of the growth.

However, the structure of energy demand growth continues to divide, in which renewable energy is the fastest growing energy, with an average annual growth rate of 7.1%, while natural gas demand remains strong (1.7%), faster than oil and coal. Oil demand slowed, growing at an average annual rate of 0.3 percent in the first half of the year before gradually stabilising, while coal demand remained almost flat, falling to its lowest level in the primary energy mix since the Industrial Revolution.

II. The growth of China's energy demand growth is mainly from renewable energy and natural gas

According to BP, China's energy demand grew by 1.1 percent a year in 2017-2040, significantly lower than 5.9 percent in 1995-2017 and 1.2 percent in the same period (1.2 percent a year).

The BP expects the share of coal to fall from 60 percent in 2017 to 35 percent in 2040 in China's energy consumption mix, which will be largely offset by renewable energy and natural gas.

Demand for natural gas in China will continue to grow rapidly in the future, but oil demand growth will slow as a result of a significant slowdown in demand for refined oil.

Overall, BP's annual outlook is more conservative about China's energy demand growth over the next decade or so, but is bullish on renewable energy and less polluting natural gas.