The installed capacity of PV in China may double during the 13th five-year Plan period
It is reported that the National Energy Administration recently convened a forum on the achievements of the mid-term evaluation of the 13th five-year Plan for the development of solar energy to discuss the adjustment of the objectives of the development planning in the fields of photovoltaic power generation and photothermal power generation during the 13th five-year Plan.
Participants revealed that the consensus reached by all parties will raise the photovoltaic installation target set out in the 13th five-year Plan for Solar Energy Development. According to the original plan, by the end of 2020, China's PV generation capacity reached the target of 105GW. And now, China's actual photovoltaic installed scale has exceeded this target. In response, the General Electric Power Planning and Design Institute, which is in charge of the industrial evaluation, proposed a plan to raise the installation target of the 13th five-year Plan to 210 ~ 230 GW; however, the general recommendation of enterprises and local governments is to raise the target to 250 ~ 270 GW.
As for the voices of enterprises and localities, regulators have clearly expressed their firm support for the development of the photovoltaic industry, and the indicators can be more positive, but how much they can be enlarged to, we still need to consider the situation of power grid consumption and subsidies, and it needs to be coordinated and confirmed by multi-departments. On the subsidy side, regulators said photovoltaic subsidies would continue over the next few years, but it was unclear how long they would last.
It is understood that the relevant leadership of the National Energy Administration has indicated that it will continue to support the vigorous development of photovoltaic, one of the key types of clean energy supported by the State, and will continue to subsidize it one after another before 2022, and will not push forward the process of affordable access to the Internet across the board. Until fully de-subsidised, the National Energy Administration will still ensure a certain amount of subsidy installed each year and push for a further decline in the intensity of the subsidy. It is reported that in the coming month, the National Energy Administration will focus on accelerating the introduction of 2019 photovoltaic industry-related policies, to provide protection for the stable development of the market.
According to the 13th five-year Plan of Solar Energy Development issued in December 2016, by the end of 2020, the installed capacity index of photovoltaic power generation in China is 105GW, and the installed capacity index of photothermal generation is 5GW. In fact, by September 2018, China had reached 165 GW, far exceeding the objectives of the 13th five-year Plan. Although the goal of photovoltaic installation in the 13th five-year Plan is not to restrict the scale or limit the higher loading, it is necessary to adjust the planning target from the middle of the 13th five-year Plan to the mid-way of the 13th five-year Plan.
The construction of photovoltaic projects in China began in the 1970s, but was constrained by the high cost of generating electricity. Before 2000, most of the domestic photovoltaic installations were limited to small-power independent power systems. In 2009, China started the demonstration project of radio and television technology application, the Golden Sun demonstration project and the concession bidding of photovoltaic power station, which opened the curtain of the development of PV in China.
With the continued introduction of government policies, the volume of PV installed in China continues to grow steadily. According to the data, in 2017, China's total installed photovoltaic capacity reached 130 million kilowatts, accounting for 7.3 percent of the total capacity of generating equipment, an increase of 2 percent over the same period last year. In the first half of 2018, China installed 24.3GW of photovoltaic power generation, roughly the same as the same period last year, including 12.06GW of photovoltaic power stations, down 30 percent from the same period last year, and 12.24GW of distributed photovoltaic, up 72 percent from the same period last year. It is predicted that the second half of 2018 will see a sharp decline in PV demand and the first decline in global installed capacity, which is expected to be 201 Nine years on is expected to return to growth.
According to the scale of manufacturing industry and the development target of some electric power investment enterprises in China, it is necessary for China to install new 40GW every year in the future to maintain the orderly development of the industry, and to further promote the cost reduction through economies of scale.
